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Iran has vowed to exact a ''crushing revenge'' on American forces in retaliation for the killing of Quds commander Qassem Soleimani - leaving the Middle East on the brink of a conflict that could quickly spiral into World War 3.

伊朗誓言要對美軍進行“毀滅性的復仇”,以報復美軍打死圣城指揮官卡西姆 索萊馬尼的行為。這使得中東處于沖突的邊緣,沖突可能很快升級為第三次世界大戰。

The Iranian National Security Council is currently meeting in Tehran - chaired by Ayatollah Khamenei himself for the first time ever - to consider its response.

伊朗國家安全委員會目前正在德黑蘭開會考慮如何應對——這是阿亞圖拉 哈梅內伊第一次親自主持會議。

At their disposal is the world''s 13th most powerful military, a host of militia groups spread across the Middle East, proxy-forces such as Lebanon''s Hezbollah and Yemen''s Houthi rebels, and allies like Syria''s Bashar al-Assad.

世界第13大軍事力量、遍布中東的民兵組織、黎巴嫩真主黨和也門胡塞反政府武裝等代理部隊,以及敘利亞的巴沙爾 阿薩德等盟友,隨時聽命于他們。

Targets in their crosshairs are likely to include US troops and military bases in Iraq and Syria, Israeli forces in the Golan Heights, tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia''s oil infrastructure.

他們的目標可能包括美國在伊拉克和敘利亞的軍隊和軍事基地、戈蘭高地的以色列軍隊、霍爾木茲海峽的油輪以及沙特阿拉伯的石油基礎設施。



The US, China, Russia and Israel all have nuclear weapons - with at least three of those possessing next-generation hypersonic missiles capable of breaching all defense systems.

美國、中國、俄羅斯和以色列都擁有核武器,其中至少有3個國家擁有能夠突破所有防御系統的下一代高超音速導彈。

Israel is also armed with nuclear weapons and is an obvious target for any Iranian attacks, but Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF will not hesitate to defend themselves and have recently struck Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in Syria.

以色列也擁有核武器,而且它是伊朗攻擊的明顯目標,但本杰明 內塔尼亞胡和以色列國防軍會毫不猶豫地自衛,他們最近還打擊了伊朗支持的敘利亞真主黨武裝。

If Iran decides to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, as it has often threatened to do in the past, a host of world powers including European nations which rely on the oil which flows through the waterway could find themselves having to defend their interests.

如果伊朗決定封鎖霍爾木茲海峽,就像它過去經常威脅要做的那樣,許多世界大國,包括依賴石油的歐洲國家,可能會發現自己不得不捍衛自己的利益。

Ultimately, if the tit-for-tat exchanges between these countries escalated far enough it is conceivable but unlikely that it would end with a nuclear exchange - and destruction on a global scale.

最終,如果這些國家之間的針鋒相對升級到一定程度,就有可能(但不太可能)以一場核戰以及全球范圍的破壞告終。



(Iran is considering its options against America in retaliation for the killing of Quds commander Qassem Soleimeni in Baghdad. The conflict could quickly spiral out of control, dragging in other world powers including Russia, Turkey and China)

(伊朗正在考慮對美國采取行動,以報復美國在巴格達打死圣城指揮官索萊馬尼。這場沖突可能很快失去控制,牽扯到俄羅斯、土耳其和中國等世界大國。)

Country by country, here is how the conflict could play out:

逐個國家來看,以下是沖突可能的結果:

IRAN

伊朗

The country has an army which is thought to number around half a million active servicemen, along with a population of some 82million from which to draw reserves.

據信,伊朗有50萬現役軍人,另外還有8200萬的人口可從中提取預備役軍人。

At the military''s disposal is an arsenal of ballistic missiles, tanks, attack helicopters, fast jets and gunboats.

軍方可以動用彈道導彈、坦克、武裝直升機、快速噴氣機和炮艇。

While Iranian forces are unlikely to be involved in initial fighting, if the situation escalates then they could be dragged into a ground war with the US.

盡管伊朗軍隊不太可能參與最初的戰斗,但如果局勢升級,他們可能會被拖入與美國的地面戰爭。

In the event that US forces are deployed into Iran itself, the country''s biggest asset is geography: Surrounded on three sides by mountains, a fourth by ocean, and with a vast desert at its center, it poses a formidable obstacle - even for the US Army.

一旦美軍被部署到伊朗境內,該國最大的優勢就是其地理位置:三面環山,四面環海,中部是廣袤的沙漠,這就構成了一個巨大的障礙——即使對美軍來說也是如此。



Targets would likely include Iranian nuclear facilities - which were successfully targeted with the Stuxnet virus in the past - communications equipment, radar, power networks and other key infrastructure.

目標可能包括伊朗的核設施——過去曾被Stuxnet病毒成功瞄準過——通信設備、雷達、電力網絡和其它關鍵基礎設施。

To nullify the threat of American drones, Iran could use anti-aircraft missiles to shoot them down, as it did in June last year.

為了消除美國無人機的威脅,伊朗可以使用防空導彈擊落它們,就像去年6月那樣。

Iranian missiles could also be trained on US warships around the Arabian Peninsula, including the Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, but this would be an extreme option and likely only taken after a ground invasion.

伊朗的導彈也可以用來打擊在阿拉伯半島周圍的美國軍艦上,包括林肯航母戰斗群,但這將是一個極端的選擇,可能只有在地面入侵后才會采取。

China also has ships stationed in the Gulf of Oman and recently carried out joint exercises with Iran and Russia, potentially dragging them into any conflict at sea.

中國還在阿曼灣部署了軍艦,最近還與伊朗和俄羅斯舉行了聯合軍演,有可能將它們拖入任何海上沖突。

IRAQ

伊拉克

There are some 5,000 US troops currently stationed around Iraq, with more on the way, all of whom are now targets for Shia militias which have fought for Iran - and in some cases directly with Soleimani - in the past.

目前約有5000名美軍駐扎在伊拉克各地,還有更多的美軍在路上,他們現在都是什葉派民兵的目標,這些民兵過去曾為伊朗作戰,在某些情況下還直接與索萊馬尼一同作戰。

The embassy in Baghdad, which has been the target of attacks in recent days, is likely to see renewed action, while military patrols and bases could be hit by ground troops and IEDs - Soleimani''s weapon of choice against US forces during the 2003 invasion.

巴格達的大使館最近幾天一直是襲擊的目標,可能會看到新的行動,而軍事巡邏和基地可能會被地面部隊和簡易爆炸裝置襲擊,在2003年的入侵中,索萊馬尼曾用簡易爆炸裝置來對付美軍。



(The US embassy in Baghdad, which has been attacked by pro-Iran militias in recent days, is likely to come under renewed attack along with other US bases and some 5,000 troops stationed in the region)

(美國駐巴格達大使館近日來遭到親伊朗民兵的襲擊,該處可能會與其他美軍基地以及駐扎在該地區的約5000名士兵一起再次遭到襲擊。)

Missile attacks of the kind which killed a US military contractor last week, sparking the escalation that ended in Soleimani''s death, are also likely.

上周導致一名美國軍事承包商喪生的那種導彈襲擊,最終導致索萊馬尼死亡的事件,也有可能再次發生。

The Quds Force, which Solemani controlled for almost two decades, will orchestrate the attacks from behind the scenes and may become directly involved in order to avenge their beloved leader''s death.

索萊馬尼控制了將近20年的圣城部隊將從幕后策劃這些襲擊,并可能直接參與其中,為他們敬愛的領袖報仇。

In the past, questions have been raised over whether Quds Forces operate independently of the regime in Tehran, raising the prospect of attacks even if not directly ordered by Tehran.

過去曾有人質疑圣城部隊是否獨立于德黑蘭政權而行動,這增加了襲擊的可能性,即使不是德黑蘭直接下令。

SYRIA

敘利亞

Bashar al-Assad is a close ally of Iran, and owes the continued existence of his regime in large part to the personal intervention of Soleimani, who helped him turn the tide of Syria''s years-long civil war along with Russia.

巴沙爾 阿薩德是伊朗的親密盟友,他的政權得以繼續存在,在很大程度上要歸功于索萊馬尼的個人干預,索萊馬尼同俄羅斯幫助他扭轉了敘利亞多年內戰的局勢。

While Assad is not likely to be involved in fighting directly, he could be persuaded to turn a blind eye to attacks by pro-Iran militias against several hundred US troops and Kurds remaining in the country after Donald Trump ordered a withdrawal.

盡管阿薩德不太可能直接參與戰斗,但在唐納德 特朗普下令撤軍后,他可能會被說服,對親伊朗民兵針對留在敘利亞的數百名美軍和庫爾德人的攻擊睜一只眼閉一只眼。

Iran has also spent time establishing its own military infrastructure in Iran, complete with missile bases which Israel has previously said could be used against its territory.

伊朗還花時間在伊朗建立了自己的軍事基礎設施,包括導彈基地。以色列此前曾表示,這些導彈基地可能會被用來打擊以色列領土。



(Russia has ground forces stationed in Syria defending a key Iranian ally in Bashar al-Assad, who in large part owes the continued existence of his regime to Soleimeni who organised his forces during the country''s civil war)

(俄羅斯在敘利亞部署了地面部隊,以保護伊朗在巴沙爾 阿薩德政權中的一個關鍵盟友。阿薩德政權的存續,在很大程度上要歸功于在敘利亞內戰期間組織軍隊的索萊馬尼)。



(Russia''s latest S400 anti-aircraft systems in Syria, which could be used against American jets and bombers in the event the crisis spirals into a wider war)

(俄羅斯在敘利亞部署了最新的S400防空系統,一旦危機升級為更大范圍的戰爭,該系統可以用來對付美國的噴氣式飛機和轟炸機)

If Tehran decides to strike the staunch US ally, then the hammer will likely fall on the embattled Golan Heights region, though Tel Aviv has warned that Iranian missiles can range much further across its borders.

如果伊朗決定打擊美國的堅定盟友,那么重擊可能落在四面楚歌的戈蘭高地地區,盡管特拉維夫警告稱,伊朗導彈的射程可以越過其邊境遠得多

If fighting escalates here, then Russian forces stationed across the country could quickly become embroiled, along with Turkish forces currently deployed in the north.

如果這里的戰斗升級,那么駐扎在全國各地的俄羅斯軍隊可能很快就會卷入其中,連同目前部署在北部的土耳其軍隊。

ISIS will also likely exploit the situation to try and pit the sides against each-other, allowing them to seize back territory they lost in recent years.

ISIS還可能利用這一形勢,試圖讓各方互相對立,從而奪回近年來失去的領土。

LEBANON

黎巴嫩



Another key US ally in the region, Riyadh has seen attacks against its oil infrastructure in recent months which were blamed on Tehran.

美國在該地區的另一個重要盟友,近幾個月來,利雅得的石油基礎設施遭到攻擊,人們將其歸咎于德黑蘭。

Iran could choose to harass, disable or destroy oil tankers sailing in the Persian Gulf which separates it from the Arabia Peninsula, potentially disrupting a key source of income for the Saudis.

伊朗可能選擇騷擾、破壞或摧毀在波斯灣航行的油輪,這可能會擾亂沙特的一個重要收入來源。波斯灣是伊朗與阿拉伯半島的分界線。



(Saudi oil infrastructure is likely to feature in Iran''s plans for strikes in the region, following on from major disruption caused after a drone and missile attack on the country''s largest oil refinery last year)

(沙特阿拉伯的石油基礎設施可能成為伊朗在該地區發動襲擊的計劃的一部分。去年,伊朗最大的煉油廠遭到無人機和導彈襲擊,造成重大破壞。)

Tehran could also attempt a repeat of the audacious attack which knocked out the country''s oil facilities in the summer, though security was massively ramped up afterwards, making success far from a sure thing.

德黑蘭還可能試圖重演今年夏天那場摧毀該國石油設施的大膽襲擊,盡管襲擊之后安全措施大幅加強,但成功阻攔的可能性仍很渺茫。

One of the most extreme option available to Iran would be closing the Strait of Hormuz completely, cutting off a fifth of the world''s daily oil supply.

對伊朗來說,最極端的選擇之一是完全關閉霍爾木茲海峽,切斷世界五分之一的每日石油供應。

While Tehran has often threatened to close the waterway, such a move would almost certainly prompt a response from US carrier groups in the region as well as dragging in other world powers who rely on the oil.

盡管伊朗經常威脅要關閉這條航道,但此舉幾乎肯定會促使美國在該地區的航母戰斗群做出回應,并把依賴石油的其他世界大國拉進來。

YEMEN

也門

Iran has been fighting a proxy-war in Yemen using Houthi rebels, fighting against Saudi forces which are allied to the ruling regime.

伊朗一直在也門使用胡塞反政府武裝進行代理人戰爭,同與執政政權結盟的沙特軍隊作戰。

Attacks against the Saudis could increase, and Iran could use Houthi drones and guided missiles to launch attacks against pipelines in Saudi Arabia and other infrastructure as it has done in the past.

針對沙特的襲擊可能會增加,伊朗可能會像過去那樣,使用胡塞(Houthi)無人機和導彈對沙特的輸油管道和其他基礎設施發動襲擊。

AFGHANISTAN

阿富汗

The US has just reached a ceasefire agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan in an attempt to put an end to the longest war it has ever fought.

美國剛剛與阿富汗塔利班達成?;饏f議,試圖結束其有史以來持續時間最長的戰爭。

But, as in Iraq and Syria, Iran has lixs with Shia militias across the region which it could leverage in an attempt to derail the process and plunge the region back into conflict, further extending US engagement there.

但與在伊拉克和敘利亞一樣,伊朗與該地區各地的什葉派民兵組織有聯系,它可以利用這些聯系,試圖破壞這一進程,使該地區重新陷入沖突,進一步擴大美國在該地區的交戰。

QATAR

卡塔爾

The country houses the largest American military base in the Middle East, at Al Udeid, which is home to some 10,000 troops and dozens of fighters and bombers including F-22 fighters and B-52 bombers.

美國在中東地區最大的軍事基地位于烏代德,那里駐扎著大約1萬名士兵,以及數十架戰斗機和轟炸機,包括F-22戰斗機和B-52轟炸機。

If all-out war breaks out with Iran, then Al Udeid will be at the center of efforts to establish air superiority, and as such will also be a major target for Iran and its allies.

如果與伊朗爆發全面戰爭,那么烏代德將是建立空中優勢的中心,因此也將是伊朗及其盟友的主要目標。



(Al Udeid air base (pictured during Ivanka Trump''s visit) in Qatar will be at the center of US efforts to establish air superiority in the event of a wider war. There are dozens of aircraft at the base, including F-22 fighters and B-52 bombers)

(在伊萬卡·特朗普訪問卡塔爾期間拍攝的烏代德空軍基地,將成為美國在更大范圍戰爭中建立空中優勢的努力中心?;赜袛凳茱w機,包括F-22戰斗機和B-52轟炸機)

HOW U.S. COULD BIT BACK

美國要怎樣反擊

The United States has a vast array of military hardware in the Middle East and Persian Gulf. Among the military options are F22 Raptor fighters based in Dubai, cruise missile-armed Ohio class submarines and aircraft carriers and US Special Forces who are still based in northern Iraq and Syria.

美國在中東和波斯灣擁有大量軍事裝備。美國的軍事選擇包括:駐扎在迪拜的F22猛禽戰斗機、配備巡航導彈的俄亥俄級潛艇和航空母艦,以及仍駐扎在伊拉克和敘利亞北部的美國特種部隊。

Strategic assets such as B2 Stealth bombers can also strike by flying over from the US mainland, and - in the ultimate event - America can also field nuclear weapons fired from silos on the mainland at virtually anywhere in the world.

像B2隱形轟炸機這樣的戰略資源也可以從美國本土起飛,從伊朗上空飛過進行打擊,而且——在最終的事件中——美國還可以將核武器從發射井發射到世界上幾乎任何地方。

HOW RUSSIA COULD BE DRAGGED IN

俄羅斯將怎樣被牽扯進來



Its special forces are also among the most feared in the world, and stationed across the region.

它的特種部隊也是世界上最可怕的,并且駐扎在整個地區。